Abstract
Pakistan experienced a grave power shortfall be-
tween 2006 and 2017. The government responded to the situation
through fast track development of power plants. However, the
energy planners were unable to accurately forecast the electricity
demand, resulting in a situation where more generation is
available than needed. The power plants are backed by take-or-
pay contracts. Thus, even if the power plants are not operating, a
substantial capacity payment is still paid. To utilize this surplus
available capacity year around electricity loads are needed. On
the other hand, Northeastern Pakistan has one of the worst air
quality in the world. Over 45% of the emissions are attributed
to the transport sector. Therefore, electric vehicles (EVs) are an
ideal load that utilizes the excess generation capacity and at the
same time, improves air quality in the region. In this paper, we
analyse the impact of various penetration levels of EVs on the
utilization of excess generation capacity. This analysis will help
us to determine EV penetration goals such that the capacity is
optimally utilized. The impact of EVs is analysed using three
optimistic scenarios of 30%, 50% and 70% new vehicle sales for
two, three and four wheelers starting from 2020. This showed
that by 2024, EVs will add 1250 MW at 70% new vehicle sales
and only with peak demand, it is expected to reach available
generation capacity.